Completed Head&Shoulder Price pattern

Lastweek, USDCAD decided to test week 34 resistance (which was also mentioned in the previous posting – Should price decide to try and test week 34 high (blue line) again but failed to close above, then we could look forward to go short, with a reversal pattern in a lower timeframe see previous article here .) Indeed USDCAD fell close to 300 pips! Although it didn’t move 400 pips but earning close to 300 pips is already satisfying.

So for week 36, can we look forward to a continuation of the downfall or is it going to be another scenario of testing week 34 and now week 35 high?

-          We should always be a trend follower and not otherwise, unless we see a reversal pattern. Since Loonie seems to show us that it is on a downward movement, we could look forward to short should price get resisted at potential immediate resistance zone.

-          If we want to go long, we should wait for price to get supported at strong support zone before we could go long. A potential support zone could be at 1.0245 (red line) which is also week 30/32 & 33 low. Always remember to buy low sell high.

Tflow® students can look forward to another 300 pips movement! We could already see a Tflow® pattern forming but wait for a confirmation and a trigger before you jump in a trade!

To find out more, you can join our free forex seminar where we are going to showcase Tflow®.

Only registerd users (ie TerraSeeds Tflow® graduates) can view this post. Graduates please log in with your UID and password that you use for Forum. Find out how you can be part of our privileged trading community. Email forex@terraseeds.com

From my previous posting two weeks ago, I mentioned about two types of trades: Impatience and the patience traders. USDCAD has hit the level I mentioned and moved about 400 pips up and thus breaking out of the triangle formation. So if you are a patience trader you have gotten yourself a neat 400 pips!

Last week, which is week 34, USDCAD has tried to move up of 1.0665 zone (which is also May & June High), thrice before plunging down. Can we assume that this is a temporary halt before a continuation of its upward movement or has it decide to dive nose down?

Going to Week 35, the green zone which is the potential support zone would be an area to look out for the bulls to join in. This is also a prior support turn resistance zone.

However, the bears might have the strength to push price down further to the 1.0350 (pink line) another strong support zone.

Should price decide to try and test week 34 high (blue line) again but failed to close above, then we could look forward to go short, with a reversal pattern in a lower timeframe.

Tflow® students, please look out for Tflow® pattern and trigger. You might just set yourself another 400 pips!

To find out more, you can join our free forex seminar where we are going to showcase Tflow®.

USDCAD is still stuck in a triangle formation for many many weeks and price may be near at the upper channel of the Day Triangle, but with Tflow® we don’t play break out.

With week 31 opening at low of 1.0260, reached a high of 1.0493 but Friday 13th Aug closed was at around 1.0410. This seems to suggest some bullishness in price with a Higher high and higher low seen.

2 Scenarios to look forward in the coming week for the patience and impatience traders:

- Long Term Traders (patience) would be looking to go long once price reach a strong support level.
An ideal zone would be near the red support line. 1.0274. But watch out for immediate support level (orange line)

- The Short Term traders (impatience) would be looking to short. Possibly in a lower timeframe, 1hr or 15mins. A potential good short would near or at resistance level. (Blue line. Support turn resistance zone) While price still seems to suggest that trend is still up. It is prudent to take some profit at the immediate support zone. As this could be counter trend move.

Yes long term trader may still look forward to go long at retracement or strong support level and thus eventually breaking out the triangle formation. But with Tflow® we could look to short before we resume our long position.

To find out more, you can join our free forex seminar where we are going to showcase Tflow®.

On the daily chart of USDCAD, price is still within the triangle formation. Price also visited month of May, low of 1.0107 before moving up. This is a very strong support zone because price failed to break through. (Tflow® students if put in your Fibo-r you can see that price is nicely resting on the key levels)

On the H4 Chart, we can see that a new higher high and a higher low being formed. It seems like the bull are coming over strongly. However for the bulls to continue charging up, it must surpass the immediate resistance of recent high which is Tuesday high as well as Week 30 high!

If bulls managed to break through, we should aim to take profit at the upper channel of the triangle formation before the bears joins in the fight.

What can Tflow® Students do?
We have already identify the flow, now we should wait for Tflow® Pattern to form in the lower timeframe before triggering the trade.

To find out more, you can join our free forex seminar where we are going to showcase Tflow®.

USDCAD triangle formation in daily chart still holds with price moving in a tighter range

On H4 Chart we see that the bearishness from week 29 continues to week 30 with price visiting new low. However Price still didn’t break close week 28 Low of 1.02755. It was moving in a range replicating week 28.

Now what is price suggesting? Are we seeing support now since it didn’t close below week 28 low and the lower channel of the triangle?

Going forward, the two key levels to watch out for will be 1.0275 & 1.0385.

If price still didn’t manage break below week 28 low, we could look to go long with profit taking at each resistance.

However if price continue to form a new lower low, then the support will be breach and the downward descendent might continue and eventually breaking out of the triangle formation.

Loonie remains range bound

On week 28, price went up strongly however on week 29, price failed to continue its upward moment and descend downward instead.
Now we cant tell if price is going to try to move upwards one more time. But one thing for sure, we know that price is currently trapped in a Triangle formation.
We need the market to tell us who will emerge as the winner. Will the bear be strong enough to take over or will the bull charge up all the way?

The symmetrical triangle is mainly considered to be a continuation pattern that signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending resistance line and an ascending support line. The two trendlines in the formation of this triangle should have a similar slope converging at a point known as the apex. The price of the security will bounce between these trendlines, towards the apex, and typically breakout in the direction of the prior trend – source: Investopedia

So what can we expect for week 30?

1. We might see price to continue ranging inside the triangle formation.
2. Traders should be collecting profit at either side of the trendline.
3. We need to let the market show us the way. If price breaks out of the triangle formation, let price to get supported to go long or get resisted first before you go short.

PS Tflow(R) students please read in the  forum on how to trade inside Triangle zone as illustrated by your fellow mates & Tiong Hum.

To find out more, you can join our free forex seminar where we are going to showcase Tflow®

Last week i mentioned that USDCAD might have a potential inverted head & shoulder on a daily chart.
And in order for an inverted head and shoulder to confirm price must break above the 1.0675 resistant level (green line).

Well price has successfully break above 1.0472 level (blue line). Price retraced to an important support at 1.0320.  We made a posting during then to update our Tflow® students. Tflow® students should be happy because they easily bag about 200 pips with this trade alone. In fact there was a second entry for this trade if they had miss the first boat.

Now back to the 4 hour chart.

We see that week 26 was up. Week 27 was down but found support on week 26 low.  Week 28 continues to move up.
so what could we expect for week 29?

Week 29 might be a continuation of week 28. We should always assume a trend to continue unless we see a confirmation of a reversal pattern. But could price break above 1.0672 this time round? Well even if price cant break above 1.0672. With Tflow®, we still might have another chance to earn about 200 pips!

So Tflow® students should’nt be in a hurry to trade. We should first identify the flow. Identify market level! Then wait for a trigger in a lower timeframe to have a low risk high reward trade!

‘Always let the market tell us what to do and not tell the market what to do!’

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On Day chart, we see that a potential inverted head and shoulder is forming. However in order for an inverted head and shoulder to be valid, price must break its neck line. (green line)

Back on the h4 chart. We see that price has been going up for two weeks before it plummet down on week 27. Base on last week closed, price stops at around 1.0320 (red line) which can also be seen as a support level.

In order for price to resume its upward momentum,
1. price must not break below the red support line, 1.0320

2. resistance levels to look out for, 1.0472 and 1.0674. (In order for our inverted head and shoulder to be valid in the daily chart, the latter level must be breached).

3. Should price decide to move up, Tflow® students should be waiting for a pattern & a trigger in a lower timeframe. (Also if you had paid attention during Tiong Hum’s Hands-on class last week, you could already be seeing a trigger)

Let me repeat the steps in Tflow® (a methodology for forex trading based on applied Elliott Wave and Advance Fibonacci Ratios)

1.    Identify flow

2.    Optimum zone with Rivers

3.    Identify market level

4.    Wait for trigger

Based on our Tflow® Method, we predicted Loonie’s (USDCAD) movement on Tuesday 22^nd June 2010.

This was a Daily Chart Signal where price retraces to Fibonacci 76.4%.

With Tflow®, we were able to finetune our entry to 15 minutes chart (see 1^st entry), thus reducing our risk to around 30 pips.

A daily chart signal don’t happen that often as an hourly signal. But its strength is much stronger. Thus price shot up immediately and in the next few hours, we were in the positive zone.

Such signal is especially good for working people, where you don’t have time to scalp or swing trade often but with Tflow® predictive nature, you are able to monitor potential trades and trigger with as high reward to risk ratio as 10:1.

Well, we had a whopping 250 pips move, USD 2500 on a standard contract.

Even fantastic, we predicted in advance our target price. Price reached 4^th Projected Target profit nicely before it bounced down.

This was a low risk, high reward Trade. 30 pips risk with a 250 pips profit.

Join us for our Preview session, where we will share with you on how we trade with Tflow ®

Oh yes, not to forget our preview promotions still remain. Check with us on what our available current preview promotions.

Upcoming preview sessions
Date: 29^th June 2010 (Tue) & 5th July (Mon) 2010
Time: 7.30pm – 9.30 pm

Price is currently near support (Red thick line) and Price is a the bottom of the equidistant channel I have map out my 1 2 3, but 4 is not confirm yet. Point 4 could be strong because it is interchange support turn resistant area. Point 4 is also far away from 13TL break.

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In a privileged posting to Tflow® student, I told them that we are anticipating a reversal in USDCAD very very soon.  Because Tflow® is price action based, we are able to predict what are the scenario that might happen. Indeed, everything was within our prediction.

On 4 June morning, I wrote the article: Private: USDCAD – Forex Trade Strategy for H4 Trade

On 4 June night, USDCAD did exactly we predicted and came with a 200 pips movement.

All our advance predicted price target was reached.

Do watch out for 1.0671 and 1.0740 as these are Tflow® predicted resistance levels.

See our trade here!

If you wish to have more insight into how Tflow® is being traded in not only the Forex market, but also stocks, futures, do join us for the Free Forex Educational Seminar.

Tflow® Strategy on USDCAD, Loonie. Also include predicted price level to watch out. I also pointed out some scenario of what might happen in future so that you can anticipate. Private post, Tflow® graduates log in to view.

Only registerd users (ie TerraSeeds Tflow® graduates) can view this post. Graduates please log in with your UID and password that you use for Forum. Find out how you can be part of our privileged trading community. Email forex@terraseeds.com

Only registerd users (ie TerraSeeds Tflow® graduates) can view this post. Graduates please log in with your UID and password that you use for Forum. Find out how you can be part of our privileged trading community. Email forex@terraseeds.com

Only registerd users (ie TerraSeeds Tflow® graduates) can view this post. Graduates please log in with your UID and password that you use for Forum. Find out how you can be part of our privileged trading community. Email forex@terraseeds.com

The Loonie is on a bear trend move since Feb 2010 and there is a possibility of down trend continuation.

A bear trend can be defined as price movement on a successive Lower Highs and Lower Lows. And this is how USD/CAD (Loonie) has been for the past 2 months as seen on the daily chart.

USDCAD Daily Chart

Yesterday, the Loonie made a gravestone doji, which hints a lower high is set and a bearish move is underway.

However, it is worth to see both the Bearish and Bullish view on Lonnie in order to make a thorough analysis.

4 Hourly Chart of USD/CAD

As seen on the 4 hourly chart, there is a possibility that Price could make a Higher Low then a Higher High to signify a possible Bullish move.

Conclusion of Loonie

Bearish View: Yesterday’s move could be a lower High set for a bearish continuation.

Bullish View: If a Higher Low comes after Yesterday’s Lower High setup, then it could be the start of the Bullish trend.

USDCAD has been in a series of lower low and lower high.

In the above H4 chart, we see a potential double bottom pattern.  In a double bottom, it signals reversal of this downtrend.  One key thing in a double bottom is the low acts as strong support.

In tflow®, we are able to enter a trade before confirmation of a double bottom (where a double bottom confirmation is via the break of it’s neckline resistance).

First, a flow must establish. Second we see a retracement.  If you are here for tflow® free educational seminar, the trainer will illustrate how to conduct tflow® during the session.

Of course, we will have a trigger (which tflow® uses price action trigger – and believe me, that’s the fastest)

In USDCAD, we are waiting for the trigger. Lastly, tflow® can predict the first price target level.  We have many levels and thus with this technique, we are able to maximise our profit and improve on reward to risk ratio.

Happy Trading!

The Loonie (USDCAD) is on a downtrend since 2009 and it does not seems to have any attempt to reverse this trend as of now.

Weekly Chart of USDCAD

As from the Weekly Chart above, the Loonie is making its way near to 2009 support and it is also near to multi-week support zone now. Since late Sep 2009 till now, the Loonie has been on a trading range, which could be a consolidation of the downtrend.

How to take this advantage?

4 Hourly Chart of USDCAD

On the 4 hourly chart, it seems that Loonie is forming a pennant-like chart pattern, which could hint a possible trend continuation.

This pattern will be valid as long as the top trendline of the pennant is not violated.

On the other hand, a bullish view on the Loonie could regard the pennant-like pattern to be a symmetrical triangle for a counter-trend move.

Therefore, it will be better to wait for a clear picture for Loonie to unfold before attempt for a trade.

Bank of Canada has kept its interest rate at a low of 0.5% since Apr 2009.

Considering Canada as one of the top 10 crude oil producers in the world, it is one of the currencies that is highly correlated to crude oil. Thus, the Canadian dollar or Loonie is also in the class of Commodity Currencies.

In view of its coming interest rate announcement on 19 Jan, there is a natural tendency to see how it might affect the Loonie and perhaps to make a profit on speculation.

First, let’s see a long term view of the Loonie (USD/CAD) as refer to the weekly chart below.

You will notice that the Loonie has been strengthening since last year i.e. USD/CAD has been falling.

Currently, we are within a support zone for USD/CAD and the falling wedge pattern is nearly formed. So it does look like a reversal of the current downtrend is coming.

Second, with reference to a 4 hourly chart, it shows us a different perspective.

It seems that there is a downward channel and the Loonie just bounced off a resistance line, following the direction of the trend channel.

Is there something which the chart is trying to tell us about the Big players’ bias on this currency pair? What will be the next direction of the Loonie? It could fall on 2 possibilities.

A) Channel Breakout
Should there be a channel breakout for Loonie, it shows that the falling wedge reversal pattern is validated , as shown on the Weekly chart. This will only be made invalid if Price hits below 2009′s low to parity (1 USD == 1 CAD).

B) Channel Follow-Thru
If Price tracks this 4 Hourly channel and follows thru, then the recent support / resistance line as shown has been a focus for most traders, thus, likely to push to 2009′s low or even to parity.

But then again, with the above analysis and anticipation, the outcome is known only when Price action is shown on the chart.

I believe we will know more evidently after the Bank of Canada makes its interest announcement today.