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Posted on 01 August 2010.
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Posted in Forex Trading, Technical StudiesComments (0)
Posted on 15 June 2010.
Breakouts are popular among traders. However they can be so punishing if you get it wrong. Why? For the fact that buy high to sell higher means that you have bought at the worst price if you are wrong. And because false breaks are really common.
Well AUDUSD is at this point. Break or fade?
For bulls to play the break, look for a bull flag on the 4-hour chart that builds base at the yellow zone. Such a consolidation will allow late bulls to find low risk entry points for going long.
For bears to play the fade, 1. get a reversal candlestick pattern on day chart or 2. wait for reversal chart pattern on lower time-frames.
Posted in Forex Trading, Technical StudiesComments (1)
Posted on 29 March 2010.
The potential morning star on the AUDUSD daily chart points to a bear trap. Although the picture is only complete when the candle closes, a strong bullish momentum is already visible on the 4-hour chart. Before big bears look for a short once more, we need to see a higher pullback so that both the bullish momentum and upside risk can diminish.

AUDUSD regret break of February high

Strong bullish momentum has to diminish before bears take risk
Posted in Forex Trading, Technical StudiesComments (1)
Posted on 15 January 2010.
In previous postings, we discussed the elements of a good signal. This week we see such a combination unfold before us in the EURYEN. Lets recall.
A good signal has the following:
1. Resistance level provides a ‘hard’ place for price to reverse
2. A chart pattern hints at reversal
3. At the critical point, a candlestick pattern can be seen
4. All of the above come together in a confluence ultimately confirmed with trend line break
Let’s good at the EURYEN chart.
Firstly, the daily chart provides the ‘hard’ place to start looking for a reversal.
At the 4-hour chart, we can other elements fall in place.
Some previous postings
Posted in Technical StudiesComments (1)
Posted on 12 January 2010.
Based on a Weekly Chart, USDJPY is intact on a downward Channel as shown on the chart below. Even in the last year, the USDJPY has a smaller channel and is still on the downward trend. So, it is safer to trend following USDJPY by shorting it whenever it reaches the top of the channel.
As from the same chart, the probability of bearish reversal candlesticks is high, so we should keep a watch out for evening stars, spinning tops, dojis, bearish engulfing, etc. Just last week ending 8 Jan 2010, a hanging man variant is formed, so if this downmove is valid, the possible reversal may be at 84.88.
This is based on the assumption that USDJPY will not exceed 95.23 for the coming weeks.
USDJPY Weekly Analysis
With that long term outlook in mind, let’s consider a possible swing movement which could be taking place in the near future.
The 4-hour line chart vividly showed a possible Head and Shoulders pattern which a Right Shoulder is in midst of formation. The validity of this pattern will persist if the tip of Right Shoulder is lower than the Head.
Posted in Technical StudiesComments (1)
Posted on 25 November 2009.
Continuing our discussion of a reversal using EURJPY, here is another illustration where we can see the recurring patterns.
A look at the weekly chart of the Loonie shows that a reversal pattern can be found between October 2008 and March this year.
There recurring patterns we found in the EURJPY can be found here:
Posted in Announcements, Technical StudiesComments (0)
Posted on 21 November 2009.
A good signal usually combines a number of qualities:
Let’s look at the EURJPY chart. This is a monthly chart which gives us an excellent illustration of the concepts involved.
Note that the chart has all of the following elements:
1. Roadmap – Channel meets horizontal resistance; level at resistance proves harder to beat
2. A head and shoulder hints at reversal
3. At the critical right shoulder, an evening star can be seen
4. All of the above come together in a confluence ultimately confirmed with trend line break
Posted in Announcements, Forex Trading, Technical StudiesComments (2)
Posted on 11 July 2009.
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Posted in AnnouncementsComments (0)
Posted on 30 April 2009.
This is another execution by a student. The analysis is flawless but strong market momentum may have stopped this trade out. There was a bearish candlestick pattern in the hourly chart that was apparent in the second attempt on the resistance line. A valid but unfortunate short.
Hi All,
Last night i notice a huge movement in the EUR/USD.
1) initial thoughts at chart “eurusd1 h4″ was to long once the candle close above the “purple channel”
But some teaching by Binni and Tiong Hum came into my mind “bigger picture”, “false break”, “huge increase is hard to sustain”.
By looking at the bigger picture i manage to draw another channel (in blue) and when i put in the fibo level it is clear to me that shorting this pair is more in line with what i learn.
2) Zoom out to look at the bigger picture draw another 2 channel (blue)
Went in to fine tune at H1 Short after forming of the doji red candle
Regards,
Ivan
The postings here are analyses made for educational purposes. None of the authors, contributors, trainers or management has license to give investment analysis or advice. It is made purely for learning purposes and at no time should be taken as advice to buy or sell. We are not liable to any damange or loss in anyway.
Posted in Announcements, Trading platformComments (0)
Posted on 29 April 2009.
Posting in terraseedsgooglegroups by Swee Beng. In the 15 min and 60 min charts, Swee Beng has pointed out the excellent setups that were available. It is also an excellent illustration of charts in different timeframes yielding different results to their users.
Traders need to bear in mind then to constantly check the higher timeframe and to select the setup that will provide a higher reward-risk outcome.
Finally in the 4-hour chart, we have some zones to wait for.
My descriptions is as follows:
M15 Chart
1) This chart shows a potential short trade because the trendline from the 1234 setup has been broken by the downward momentum movement therefore sellers will be looking for candlestick formation signal to confirm a short entry.
2) The potential exit targets for short-sellers will be fibo-E 138.2 and 161.8.
H1 Chart
1) The fibo-E from the M15 timeframe meets with fibo-R 76.4 of the H1 timeframe. This means that sellers want to get out and buyers want to get in at this optimum level. It’s a marriage made in heaven.
2) This is confirmed by the tail of the candle briefly touches fibo-R 76.4 and immediately rises to break trendline from downtrend. This shows price respect fibo-R 76.4.
H4 Chart
1) Price break trendline convincingly and this move might be the first indication of reversal.
2) Price retraced to form a double bottom and a potential equidistant channel is created.
3) Buyers will be looking for an optimum entry zone somewhere near the lower half of the equidistant channel where there is a horizontal support line and fibo-R level.
4) The potential exit target will be at fibo-E 138.2 which is at the upper half of the equidistant trendline.
Thanks
Swee Beng
The postings here are analyses made for educational purposes. None of the authors, contributors, trainers or management has license to give investment analysis or advice. It is made purely for learning purposes and at no time should be taken as advice to buy or sell. We are not liable to any damange or loss in anyway.
Posted in Announcements, Forex Trading, Trading platformComments (0)
Posted on 25 June 2008.
The fundamental arguments are compelling. The technical picture irresistable. Bulls have their say. Bears polish their claws.
One thing the candlesticks tell us: both sides are willing to stay on the sidelines until a clearer picture emerge.
Posted in Forex TradingComments (0)
