Breakout Knocking at GBPJPY?

Today, we shall excite ourselves by looking at one of the most volatile currency pairs, GBP/JPY, which has a daily average fluctuation of about 300 pips.

In addition, we shall see how 3 chart patterns that is very evident on GBP/JPY for trend reversal and trend continuation – namely, rising wedge pattern, pennant and  symmetrical triangle pattern.

GBPJPY Weekly Chart

GBPJPY Weekly Chart with Chart Patterns

As shown on the chart above, the Bearish Trend Reversal started with the rising wedge formation, which later evolves into the famous Head and Shoulder pattern hinting towards a big bearish reversal move underway.

Afterwhich, every subsequent retracement of the downtrend has either a rising wedge pattern or a bear pennant pattern.

Thus, it goes to show that there is a high reliability of trend continuation when either patterns had formed.

As we observed the recent months, that there is a big rising wedge formation which seems to be forming since 2009, and a symmetrical triangle forming shortly.

As price draws nearer to the apex of the symmetrical triangle, a breakout is inevitable. Yet, will it be a another trend continuation or a bullish reversal?

Should it break out of the pattern to the bullish side, then more bullish sentiment will be added to the equation as many traders will be eyeing for trading the breakout.

Likewise for the breakout to the bearish side, whereby more shorts will be added too.

Whichever the breakout is to be, it will likely to be a big move, so it is worth keeping tabs with this volatile pair in the coming future.

Chart patterns this week (Week 50)

Chart patterns provide a good way to figure out the direction of the market. A good chart pattern offers the following clues to the trader:

  • Hint of market direction
  • Criteria for confirmation
  • Early trade signal

All in all, its qualities are predictive, pre-emptive.

Let’s look at Aussie this 2 weeks to see if clues were left for traders.

From left to right:

  1. Week 49 printed a ‘Head and Shoulder’ formation (solid blue line); this is a strong hint of a bearish reversal.
  2. Neckline (A) provided the confirmation of the H & S formation which acted as a pullback resistance at point (1).
  3. By Friday 04 December, a more obvious H & S formation was formed with the adoption of the dotted dark blue line;  confirmation provided by neckline (B).
  4. Tuesday and Wednesday of Week 50 printed a Double Bottom formation; confirmation came on Thursday with the break of the horizontal resistance (C).
  5. Rather than play ‘breakout’, point (3) was a very good throwback level to go long at support.

What to look out for next week?

A horizontal channel reveals levels support at [E] that has broken on the down side. So the opening move of Week 51 could be a test of resistance at [E] and support at [F]. Price takes the path of least resistance so the integrity of both levels may provide clues for the middle of the week to come.

Aussie Dollar chart patterns

Aussie Dollar chart patterns

Higher ground elusive for GBPUSD

1.6660 ~ proves to be elusive for the Sterling. A 3-day fling in early November adds another failed breakout to that level based on the daily chart. For now, traders have found a support in the 1-hour chart so there might be another attempt.

Daily chart

Daily chart

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