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15  05 2008

GDP: Germany double consensus forecast

 As a result, we have a rally in the EURO.

(IGM)The [GERMAN ECONOMY], at least, put in a storming performance in Q1, with [GDP]…

The [GERMAN ECONOMY], at least, put in a storming performance in Q1, with [GDP] rising by a much bigger than expected 1.5% q/q vs a 0.7% consensus f/c and accordingly the y/y pace of growth accelerating sharply to 2.6% from 1.8% in Q4 last year when the economy expanded by just 0.3% q/q. Of course, the German and Eurozone economies are expected to have pulled up appreciably during the current quarter, but 2008 appears to have started very well and this is likely to underpin the ECB’s relatively upbeat growth outlook in the face of the US slowdown/recession and knock-on global impact. Indeed, commenting on the prelim data, Economy Min Glos said the positive Q1 GDP figures show that Germany is coping with difficult global conditions. Separately, [FINAL APR INFL] confirmed the softer than expected provisional readings with CPI down 0.2% m/m and EU-HICP 0.3% lower for y/y rates of 2.4% and 2.6% resp.


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